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Green Dog dem

Sunday, November 19, 2006

State Rep campaigns may have helped Dertinger indirectly.

It's quite possible that the Higher than avg number of people voting in State rep races may have helped boosted Charles Dertingers Numbers. Looking at past mid-terms and even presidential elections usually somewhere between 10 and 20% of voters in Lehigh county tend to not bother to vote further down the ticket than congress.

This year less than 4% of voters didn't vote in the State rep races. It is quite possible that the increased activities by the state rep candidate may have brought out more party line voters, or changed peoples minds about voting Democratic. The margin for Dertinger in Lehigh increased by 3% over what had been a vote Driscoll and and matching O' Brien's number in 2002, even with 3% of the vote being pull off by Greta Brown.

Dertingers Margins of increase over Driscoll and the places he got his votes from were not the same as O'brien. A large amount of the increase came from Lower Mac and Upper Mac and Whitehall twp but not from the areas that you would expect.

They weren't the areas that were targeted by coordinated and the increases are far too high to be explained by people simply coming out for Rendell and Casey and voting for them. Wilsey who ran in the 24th State Senate dist. would have shown some improvement over the performance Mazza did in 2002 of 43% Both of them only received Wilsey was simply on the ballot.

Where as there were 3%-19% democratic increases over 2002 (which is the last reasonably comparable year). in percentages, for Democratic competitors. I would have attributed this would have been attributable to people simply coming out for Rendell or Casey and voting straight down the ticket but in a number places the increase in the state house vote was much to high to simply attributed to party line voting. But what seems to be an active choice to vote for the State rep candidate. It's also notable that where this didn't happen Dertinger didn't do as well in Lehigh county.

It is very possible that although most of the state house candidates didn't win their actions they had some effect on turnout and how people voted at first when I looked at the numbers on election night they looked awful but when comparing the to 2002 to they are shocking improvement. Going from being murdered to making a race look somewhat winnable.

The simple fact that some of the candidates made direct outreach to voters beyond simply mailing to them may have increased turn out, and have help the ticket as a whole.

I know the party would like to give Rob Hopkins all the credit for Dertinger doing better I venture to think had the State rep candidates all just sat on their hands Dertinger my simply not have done as well as he did. Though being underfunded and under help and think outreach by these candidates may have made the Congressional race a good deal closer than it would have been in a number of places.

It is also quite possible had the State house candidates been given more help in their races in Lehigh county they may have made the race even closer, or have swung the race. Part the advantage, the republicans have is all the campaigns work together.

I know a lot of party insiders will dispute the value of having functioning campaign or the affect they can have on all the races I put forward that had all the campaigns really been working in a "coordinated campaign" and when I say coordinated I mean bottom up top to bottom interaction strong on all levels Dent may not have been re-elected.

3 Comments:

  • I agree with you. If we compete in all corners of the Lehigh Valley instead of the 60 or so precincts that the coordinated decides matter, we would do better. That will take a lot more work between the rank and file amongst us.

    Take a look at the holes in the county committee lists. I think that tells you a huge part of the story here. We have to compete in the townships, or this area is doomed to Republican Congressmen until we all die.

    By Blogger Rising Sun, at 3:35 PM  

  • races will not be won in Allentown, Bethlehem or Easton. Those are the base numbers. We need to build beyond that and it needs to happen in the higher voter areas... the townships.

    By Blogger LVDem, at 5:41 PM  

  • I agree with that. With a little bit of effort by the party in the suburban core of Northampton County (Palmer, Bethlehem Twp., Williams, Moore), Dertinger could have actually won the county. We may have done better in Shade's district with some help. Same for Archie and Chris.

    Your not going to be a dominant party playing to a minority of voters. The fact is, more people in the greater Lehigh Valley don't live in Allentown, Bethlehem, or Easton than do.

    By Blogger Rising Sun, at 11:23 PM  

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