Fact Fact and damn Statistics why the July downturn in us deaths in iraq means nothing

us causality stats avg from 2004-currect (i excluded 2003 because that was the year of the invasion and scews up the numbers)

Jan 74.75 Jan 07 83 +11%
Feb 53.5 Feb 07 81 +34%
March 49.75 March 07 81 +39%
April 91.75 Apr 07 104 +13%
May 88.75 May 07 126 +42%
June 70.5 June 101 +43%
July 55 July 81 +47%
Aug 72 Aug 37
Sept 67
Oct 88.66
Nov 97
Dec 84

The numbers as you see are statiscally higher than the avg deaths. There is a consistant build and break down period for this entire situation. With Feb,March,July and Sept are build up periods and major attack periods and death being and , April,May,Aug,Oct,Nov and dec. This year the cycle has speed up to one month of down attack lightly down attacks leading to 2 months of statisically higher attacks then one both of slightly elevated attacks. If the current pattern holds true Aug and Sept will have a higher number of attacks and more troops deaths if this pattern holds true there will be around 112 us troops deaths in Aug and 105 troops deaths in sept.

I honestly don't know how they can say the surge is working when it seems the only reason the deaths are down is because of this cycle and because July is the hottest months of the year in Iraq and there are just less attacks in July because of this.

I will believe this is there is an actual break in this cycle not the meaningless claims by the generals who are trying to keep this war going.